A Missed Opportunity At Davos

In partnership with

Good morning. In today’s edition —  what world leaders in Davos should have discussed, but didn’t; US president Donald Trump taking America back to darker times; and Hindustan Unilever losing investor interest.

THE TAKE

Derisking From Trump Was Overlooked At Davos. It Should’ve Been Top Priority 

The top risk among the top five risks listed in the 20th edition of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) Global Risks Report 2025 is armed conflict. State-based armed conflict is now ranked as the number one current risk by 23% of respondents. This is an indication of how perceptions have changed for the worse. Two years ago the respondents of the same study in their two-year-long outlook had overlooked this. 

Armed conflict is followed by extreme weather events, geoeconomic confrontation, misinformation and disinformation, societal polarisation and economic downturn. However, there is an umbrella emotion for lack of any other term that overrides all of this — which is that of declining optimism.

Political Miscalculations

There is limited optimism, argues the report, because the danger of miscalculation or misjudgment by political and military actors is high. And of course, we seem to be living in one of the most divided times since the Cold War. This reveals a bleak outlook across all three time horizons  — current, short-term and long-term — that the report has covered. 

A majority of respondents (52%) anticipate an unsettled global outlook over the short term (next two years), a similar proportion to last year. Adding everything, the three categories of responses show a combined four percentage point increase from last year, indicating a heightened pessimistic outlook for the world to 2027.

It gets worse over a 10-year timeframe. The time frame being referred to are immediate, that is 2025, short to medium term (till 2027) and long term (till 2035). The WEF said the analysis aims to support decision makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.

The risks are broadly split into five domains: environmental, societal, economic, geopolitical, and technological. Now, if you were to rank the risks, as the WEF has done, five of six risks are actually entirely man made or potentially man made. 

You could argue that extreme weather is also an outcome of mankind’s excesses but that is a different discussion.

Two of the top six, polarisation and misinformation, particularly the accelerated spread of it are quite closely linked to technology which also tells you something about the role of technology in not solving the world’s problems. Within technology, adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence technologies find mention in the report, a risk that climbs the most in the 10-year risk ranking.

The role of Generative AI (GenAI) in producing false or misleading content at scale and how that relates to societal polarisation is something the report references directly.

Biological terrorism, malicious misuse of gene editing technologies and brain-computer interfaces are among the other risks. See any linkages between the role of technology in spreading misinformation and brain-computer interfaces, or the people behind them?

The Man Made Problems

With California reeling under unprecedented forest fires that have claimed many lives and caused untold damage to property and livelihoods, the prospects of extreme weather and its impact, including via forest fires, should not be hard to comprehend.

There are a few larger questions that come up.

First, if so many problems are man made, indeed could the solutions also lie within ourselves, as countries or nations or those who lead them? Second, if the world could only agree upon the problem of climate change, on the fact that climate change really is a problem, could we devote more resources to solving it?

You could rightly argue that Elon Musk as a representative of capitalism and innovation is on the right side of the climate problem with electric cars. But his social platform experiment clearly caters to both misinformation and polarisation.

Elsewhere, there is scepticism and fatigue on forced climate responses, including the environment, social and governance or ESG mandates. And Trump is killing green subsidies, so the signalling is not encouraging.

Davos this year appears to be on the defensive, waiting to see what else Trump would unleash on the world at large and businesses in specific. Most business leaders and heads of states seemed to be in retreat, trying to figure out how to plan for a barrage of threats. 

You can’t blame them.

A key item on the Global Risk Report agenda should have instead been, how to derisk from Trump and focus on the opportunities beyond.

That is a conversation the world, including countries like India desperately need to have. 

Maybe next year.

JANUS VIEW 

Trump Returns America To A Pre-War Era Of Oppression And Inequality

President Trump’s inauguration this Monday and the Gaza ceasefire the day before mark the major events of the week under review.

The trump of doom, he might not quite be, but the inauguration of  Trump’s second term at the head of the world’s most powerful nation and largest economy does send off alarm bells around the world, including for India.

It is Trump’s assault on the normative order that is a cause for concern. He has abandoned the US role as anchor of a global order in which rules of conduct, internationally approved, inform how one nation engages with another, whether in trade or in security-related matters. Instead, he is taking the US back to a pre-World War regime, in which the mighty oppress the weak, and military capability alone determines the limits of civility in interactions among nations.

While Trump has taken credit for the Gaza ceasefire, attention should shift to Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war in a jiffy. 

MESSAGE FROM THE RUNDOWN AI

Start learning AI in 2025

Everyone talks about AI, but no one has the time to learn it. So, we found the easiest way to learn AI in as little time as possible: The Rundown AI.

It's a free AI newsletter that keeps you up-to-date on the latest AI news, and teaches you how to apply it in just 5 minutes a day.

Plus, complete the quiz after signing up and they’ll recommend the best AI tools, guides, and courses – tailored to your needs.

Sign up to start learning.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

—📱 It isn’t a good day for Apple or its iPhone manufacturers in India. First, India’s Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) has issued a notice to the American tech company maker after complaints by users on the performance of their phones after the iOS 18+ update and has sought a response on the matter. Meanwhile, the National Human Rights Commission has pulled up iPhone manufacturer Foxconn over its biased hiring processes at its plant in Tamil Nadu. While Reuters had reported that Foxconn was avoiding hiring married women, India’s human rights body has asked both central and Tamil Nadu’s agencies to further investigate the matter. 

—🤝🏼 A day after it was reported that India was mulling reducing trade tariffs and increasing imports in the face of Trump’s threats, India’s electronics and technology minister said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s relationship with other countries will help the country overcome negative impacts. “It has been very clear that the entire world looks at India as a trusted country,” Ashwini Vaishnaw told Bloomberg at Davos. Vaishnaw also said that discussions were on the “holistic needs” of both countries. He, however, did not disclose specifics on the steps India was planning to take.  

—🍽️ The National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) is turning up the heat on food delivery companies Zomato and Swiggy and planning to knock on the Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) doors. The issue? Alleged anti-competitive practices like 'private labelling' through Zomato’s Bistro and Swiggy’s Snacc, 'data masking' and 'deep discounting’. NRAI president Sagar Daryani also called out Zomato Everyday and Swiggy Daily for using third-party kitchens, claiming it hurts restaurants and livelihoods, The Mint reported. At an industry town hall, Daryani urged exploring alternatives like ONDC, noting Bengaluru's success, where ONDC handles 20% of food orders, as a scalable nationwide model.

—❌ Elon Musk and Sam Altman are at it again, trading digital blows over Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative announced by US president Trump. Musk, a Trump advisor, questioned the project's funding, claiming SoftBank's contribution is overstated, Business Standard reported. Altman fired back, defending Stargate's legitimacy and urging Musk to prioritise national interest over personal business gains. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella weighed in, pledging $80 billion to Azure expansion. The feud deepens tensions between Musk and Altman, former co-founders of OpenAI.  

Editor’s Note: In our edition dated January 23, US President Donald Trump’s name was misspelt. We regret the error.

✉️ Write to us here, for queries or feedback

📩 Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe

💰 Want to sponsor this newsletter? Contact us

💰💰 Found The Core interesting? Consider supporting us