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Edu Loans Won't Be Easy Under Trump

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Good morning. In today’s edition — the first story of The Core’s year-end series ‘2025 Through The Trump Lens’ in which we look at how student loans could be affected by United States president-elect Donald Trump’s visa restrictions; biryani was the most ordered dish on Swiggy; a dip in India’s sugar outputs.

DECODE THE NEWS

Trump’s Visa Policies Could Seriously Impact Student Financing For Indians In 2025

For millions of Indian students, the dream of higher education is a steep uphill battle. This year, 2.4 million students competed for just 110,000 seats in the NEET exam, while 1.4 million vied for spots in JEE Mains. With competition so fierce, many students look abroad for opportunities, taking on substantial education loans to pursue their aspirations. However, under president-elect Donald Trump’s administration, these plans face unprecedented challenges, as anti-immigration policies threaten critical visa programs like F-1 and H-1B.

The stakes are immense. Education loans for US universities average Rs 40.6 lakh and often require families to mortgage their homes or land as collateral. Many students, under pressure to secure admission abroad, end up in sub-par colleges offering programs with limited job prospects. Without proper career pathways, these students risk being unable to repay their loans, potentially jeopardising their families’ financial stability.

Visa restrictions and potential cuts to Optional Practical Training (OPT) programs further compound these challenges. OPT allows student visa holders to extend their stay by 1-3 years to gain practical work experience, making it a crucial bridge to long-term employment. Any changes to OPT policies could leave students stranded without viable career options or the means to service their debt.

Without contingency plans or alternative pathways like studying in Canada or Europe, students face financial instability and diminishing returns on their investments amidst these geopolitical headwinds. 

PODCAST

In this episode of The Core Report's year end Special Editions, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj interviews Samir Arora, a veteran fund manager and the founder of Helios Capital, delving into his perspectives on mutual fund trends, market cycles, and investment strategies.

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CO:RELATION

Bharat Electronics March Halts 

Shares of Bharat Electronic, a Bengaluru-based Indian public sector aerospace and defence electronics company, are up 59% in 2024. However, most gains were achieved in the first half of 2024. The share prices have stagnated for the past six months. A primary reason is valuation. It trades at high price-earnings multiples, and investors seem to have priced in most positives. All profitability parameters remain robust, and the management has also guided towards a steady profit margin growth going forward for the year 2024-25. Yet, investors seem to be worried about the size of the order book. That becomes a key to future business growth guidance. 

The company’s order book in December 2023 was Rs 76,200 crore. It has remained stagnant at Rs 74,600 crore as of October 2024. The company targeted a new order inflow of Rs 25,000 crore in 2024-25. For the first half of 2024-25, it received orders worth Rs 7,500 crore. The management remained confident of achieving that new order inflow target. However, the stock market probably thinks it is a bit ambitious.

CORE NUMBER

83 million

This is the total number of biryani dishes ordered by Indians on the food delivery app Swiggy in 2024, making it the most beloved dish ordered online. Swiggy said that this is the ninth consecutive year wherein Biryani has reigned as the leading dish. While biryani lovers across the nation rejoiced, dosa enthusiasts weren't far behind, racking up 23 million orders. Dinnertime emerged as the undisputed champion of mealtimes, with a whopping 215 million orders on Swiggy, outpacing lunch by a considerable 29%. Meanwhile, Bengaluru stayed true to its culinary roots, devouring 2.5 million masala dosas in 2024. 

FROM THE PERIPHERY

—🔽 India’s sugar output may dip below consumption levels for the first time in eight years, Business Standard reported. Excessive rain and drought have slashed cane yields by up to 15 tons per hectare in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which produce nearly half of India’s sugar. The 2024/25 output is now pegged at 27 million metric tons, below the 29-million-ton consumption mark. Exports are off the table, fueling global price hikes. Uttar Pradesh’s crops faced red rot disease, with officials urging new cane varieties to curb losses.

—🚘 Chinese automakers faced their steepest drop in Europe’s EV market in eight months after new EU tariffs added up to 35% to import costs, Bloomberg reported. November saw Chinese brands, including BYD and SAIC’s MG, claim just 7.4% of registrations, down from 8.2% in October. The EU’s October tariffs, targeting state-aided firms, hit MG hardest with a 45% duty. While BYD’s registrations doubled to 4,796, overall Chinese EV exports to the EU fell 23%. Meanwhile, rising protectionism challenges Europe’s EV transition as automakers reassess strategies in an increasingly unpredictable global market.

—🛢️ India’s November crude imports hit a shift, with Middle Eastern oil soaring to a nine-month high at 48% of total intake, as refiners scaled back on Russian crude to 1.52 million barrels per day, its smallest share in three quarters, Business Standard reported. Russian oil's dip followed maintenance turnarounds and OPEC-linked commitments. Overall imports rose 2.5% from October, with Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia as top suppliers. OPEC’s share surged to an eight-month high of 53%, while CIS nations’ share dropped to 35%.

—🧑‍⚖️ Markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India has barred import-export firm Bharat Global Developers Ltd.’s (BGDL) promoters and directors from accessing capital markets indefinitely following an investigation into fraudulent activities. The company is accused of manipulating its share price through fabricated financial disclosures and non-existent contracts. SEBI noted that BGDL’s share price surged over 100 times in a year, which may have aided certain shareholders in making Rs 271 crore in illegal gains. In a directive on Monday, the regulator suspended trading of BGDL shares and also impounded alleged profits. SEBI’s investigation also found discrepancies in financial statements, suspicious preferential allotments, and dubious claims of business expansion, prompting immediate regulatory action..

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