Reliance’s Dirty AI Data Centre Pitch

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Good morning. In today’s edition: Reliance’s pitch for electricity incentives for India’s artificial intelligence (AI) data centres is a problem; India’s market rally shows signs of slowdown and how poultry became India’s fastest growing segment in agriculture.

THE TAKE

The Problem With Reliance's Pitch For AI Data Centres in India

Data from India should remain in India sounds like a good national interest pitch. However, unlike other nationalistic pitches, this one is a little more complex. 

On Tuesday, Reliance Jio chairman Akash Ambani pitched for incentives including electricity for Indian companies ready to set up artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning data centres. It's not surprising that he spoke of electricity and thus energy in the same breath.  

Did you know that with roughly half the data centre capacity, Mumbai is considered India’s data centre capital? Real estate consulting firm Knight Frank said Mumbai was the standout growth story in data centres in India last year, crossing the 2,000 MW milestone. The city ranks alongside Shanghai and Tokyo as the top data centre markets in Asia Pacific.  

Mumbai’s growth as a data centre is a confluence of several factors. One of them is that many global subsea internet cables land here. The second reason is reliable power, something Mumbai city has always prided itself on. 

According to the International Energy Agency or IEA, data centres' total energy consumption could go from 460 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2022 to more than 1,000 TwH in 2026, roughly the same as the electricity consumption of the whole of Japan.

AI’s Water Guzzling Streak

The data on data centres gets more frightening. An academic study by professors from the University of California said training GPT-3 in Microsoft’s state-of-the-art US data centres can directly evaporate 700,000 litres of clean freshwater. 

More critically, the global AI demand may be accountable for 4.2 -- 6.6 billion cubic metres of water withdrawal in 2027, which is more than the total annual water withdrawal half of the United Kingdom. 

Additionally, GPT-3 needs to “drink” (i.e., consume) a 500ml bottle of water for roughly 10-50 responses, depending on when and where it is deployed. These numbers may increase for the newly-launched GPT-4 which reportedly has a substantially larger model size, the report said.

People may quibble with the specific numbers but there is no denying that massive quantities of water is needed to cool the servers thanks to the heat generated by the sheer computing power of the high-performance machines, particularly crunching AI queries.

Power Demand

Google last week said they will buy power from Kairos Power, a developer of small modular reactors, to help deliver on the progress of AI. Last month, Microsoft signed a deal with a company called Constellation to resurrect a defunct reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. Look up Three Mile Island and see what you find.

The demand for power to drive AI applications is so stark that people are willing to revive dead nuclear reactors. 

The constant supply of power cities like Mumbai are used to will not remain so if data centres gobble up more and more of it. 

But the larger issue is the calibration of AI wants and needs and calibrating ambitions in the context of the sheer energy and water demands of this new industry.

Goldman Sachs said in a report in May this year that data centres worldwide consume 1-2% of overall power, but this percentage will likely rise to 3-4% by the end of the decade. In the US and Europe, this increased demand will help drive the kind of electricity growth that hasn’t been seen in a generation. 

Critically, carbon dioxide emissions of data centres may more than double between 2022 and 2030.

Countries like Ireland and Malaysia among many others are already bracing for demands from data centres that could go beyond 20% of their country’s total power demands, according to some estimates.

The reality is that India cannot afford such high levels of data centre consumption without denying or pricing power out of poorer sections of society. On the other hand, no one will say we don’t want advanced computing. 

But our energy needs for data centres cannot be on the same plane as the US or other developed countries that also have other energy markets to dip into.

The private sector which sees an opportunity in both setting up data centres and generating power for them cannot be trusted to make an objective policy decision that ensures a balance between energy needs and energy supplies. 

Greater calibration and rightsizing of our AI ambitions is important..

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CO:RELATION

Glazing Soda Ash

Tata Chemicals is a leading producer of soda ash or sodium carbonate in the world. There is nothing glamorous about that chemical. Its only attractiveness is its use as a critical input in the global soap and detergent industry, in addition to glass. According to India Ratings, an affiliate of global ratings agency FITCH, the soda ash industry is witnessing a significant capacity addition globally and in India. India is a net importer of soda ash, and relatively high international and domestic prices have kept margins at bay. That is reflected in the lack-lustre performance of the share price in 2024. 

The ratings agency is optimistic about the global demand over the financial years 2025-26, and a lot depends on the demand scenario in Europe, the US and China. Soda ash is used extensively for solar glass in China. At the same time, lithium carbonate used in car batteries is expected to be a key demand driver in the future.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

—🏣 Indian companies are establishing Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in the country, a trend previously dominated by foreign firms. Reliance, Adani, Dr Reddy's, and Bank of Baroda are among those who have set up approximately 50 GCCs in recent years, Business Standard reported. These centres focus on telecom, financial services, and automotive sectors, providing crucial support for their core businesses, similar to those established by multinational corporations. India currently hosts roughly 17% of such centres globally and employs around 1.9 million people. Bengaluru is the top GCC hub, accounting for 36% of the GCC workforce as of FY25, as per a TeamLease Digital report.

—📉 India's year-long stock market rally is showing signs of a slowdown as brokerages predict that companies in the NSE Nifty 50 Index will report flat or low single-digit profit gains for the September quarter.  Investors, who have been driven by strong earnings while overlooking high valuations, are now facing the reality of companies missing profit estimates, Bloomberg reported. This is evident in the disappointing quarterly results from Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services, which missed street estimates. In addition, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over $7 billion from Indian equities this month, the largest sell-off since March 2020, with those funds partly redirected to China's stimulus-fueled market.

—🏃 UpGrad co-founder Mayank Kumar, who played a pivotal role in the edtech firm's rise, has stepped down from his operational role to launch a new venture in the global talent management sector. This move comes as UpGrad is reportedly in the midst of a significant fundraising round, potentially valuing the company at over $2.2 billion. Kumar will reportedly remain an advisor, and shareholder in UpGrad. The ed-tech startup was last valued at $1.9 billion after a $40 million funding round in March 2023. To date, it has raised a total of $702 million in equity and debt financing.

PODCAST

In the last decade, poultry farming has become the fastest-growing agricultural industry in India compared to fisheries, livestock, and crops. former secretary with the Ministry of Agriculture Siraj Hussain told The Core, “And this is even though, from time to time, we have restrictions on the consumption of eggs and the consumption of meat.”

Hussain believes that contractual farming was one of the key factors that played a role in this growth. He also spoke to journalist Puja Mehra about other factors on the ‘How India’s Economy Works’ podcast. Tune in to know more.  

Apple Podcasts | YouTube | The Core

UGHH!

Reliance Jio's submission to TRAI, stating that online messaging services (like WhatsApp and Telegram) are illegal in India, has raised eyebrows and sparked debate. This assertion, made in response to TRAI's consultation paper on telecom commercial communications,  lacks cited legal backing and contradicts the widespread use and acceptance of such services.  Industry experts are seeking clarification on Jio's position and the potential implications for the evolving regulatory landscape of social media/messaging platforms in India.

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