Is this the end of TikTok?

Good morning! If you too woke up at the crack of dawn to see the Oscars today, then you’ll love this one. As per The Wall Street Journal, the Academy makes sure that all the important nominees (read: actors and directors) are well taken care of. That means giving them gift bags worth $178,410, which include vouchers for three-night stays in Switzerland and St Barts, and a week-long wellness-retreat. The vouchers leave the nominees spoilt for choice and also provide brands with a once in a lifetime marketing opportunity. Talk of a win-win. ✨

🎧 Bengaluru's fight for water. Also in today’s edition: how Indians found themselves in the conflict zone in Russia. Tune in to The Signal Daily on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Adarsh Singh, Anup Semwal, and Dinesh Narayanan also contributed to today’s edition.

The Market Signal*

Stocks & Economy: Gold outshone other assets last week, setting new records as investors prepared to rejig portfolios ahead of the US Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates even as conflict-induced uncertainty prevails globally.

The main reason for the spike is Chinese demand, with both retail and institutional buying picking up in the past few weeks. Bitcoin, which is fancied as a haven asset by some, has also risen in tandem with gold, the OG value store. 

Asian markets opened in the red, taking cues from the US, which ended Friday in losses. Japan revised its GDP growth for October-December 2023 from a 0.4% contraction to a 0.4% growth, skirting a technical recession. 

Indian equities continued their bull run last week. This week’s trigger is likely to be February retail inflation data, which will be revealed on Tuesday. The GIFT Nifty indicates a weak opening.

HEALTHCARE

Patients ❤️ Private Hospitals 

Of the ₹72,817 crore ($8.8 billion) spent by the Centre since 2018 for the free health insurance scheme, Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY), over two-thirds, or ₹48,778 crore, ended up in the coffers of private hospitals, per a report in The Indian Express.

That’s because 54% of patients seeking treatment under the scheme preferred private facilities over government-run hospitals. In states like Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, the ratio is even more skewed, with over 80% of beneficiaries opting for private healthcare. 

Ailing heart: Cardiology tops expenditures under the scheme, followed by general medicine, surgery, orthopaedics, and medical oncology.

North-South divide: Fifty-three percent of the 5.47 crore patients treated from 2018 to 2023 hailed from five southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana), indicating heightened awareness and uptake of the scheme in the region compared to the rest of the country.

AVIATION

Non-stop Trouble

Boeing has become a victim of its own doing. The airline manufacturer is now facing a criminal investigation by the US Justice Department for the Alaska Airlines fiasco. 

On the docket is a 2021 settlement too, which let Boeing off the hook for the two fatal crashes of its 737 MAX 8 planes. Back then, the deal was deemed too lenient on Boeing.

Moreover: Boeing is also being investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) for a 737 MAX 8 flight whose rudder pedals were ‘stuck’ while landing at Houston airport. The accident was the third in a week, with a San Francisco-Osaka flight losing a tire mid-air and an engine failure on a flight from Houston being the other two accidents. The Federal Aviation Administration has said it will investigate all three incidents.

Spillover effect: Indian airlines’ expansion plans will be severely dented by Boeing’s troubles.

SOCIAL MEDIA

Wednesday War

Either divest TikTok or face a ban. That’s the ultimatum US lawmakers gave its Chinese parent ByteDance after a House panel advanced a bill that could deprive the shortform video app of its largest market. This bill, if approved by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, will go to the Senate. And if passed there, it’ll reach President Biden, who’s willing to sign the legislation.

Scavenger hunt: The Wall Street Journal reports that former Activision CEO Bobby Kotick is keen on buying TikTok. Kotick is reportedly considering an acquisition partnership with the likes of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Consensus: Efforts to ban TikTok date to the administration of former President Trump. But now, Republicans and Democrats have put up a rare united front even as Biden campaigns on the app in the runup to elections, with momentum coming from administration officials including the US Deputy Attorney General.

ENTERTAINMENT

Boom/Bust

With the actors’ and writers’ union strikes out of the way, Hollywood is ready to splurge. The Hollywood Reporter estimates the US film industry will spend 5% more on new content this year. But bad news: that’s still less than what was spent in 2022.

Frenetic consolidation may also leave filmmakers with fewer choices. Such dealmaking isn’t limited to the US. Back home, Reliance is set to absolutely dominate cricket rights in India post its Disney deal, Venkat Ananth writes in The Playbook. 

¡AI-caramba!: Meanwhile, OpenAI’s showcase of text-to-video tool Sora is giving many in Hollywood sleepless nights. A recent survey found that most American adults could not tell viral Sora videos apart from those shot by humans.  

Fear of Sora’s power has pushed some creators, such as actor-director-producer Tyler Perry, to abandon plans for a studio. But other technical professionals say Sora’s capabilities can’t match human filmmaking. Yet. 

ENERGY

Coal All The Way

Last week, the coal ministry began consultations to finalise three different schemes with financial support from the centre for state-owned companies as well as private investors to set up coal gasification plants. 

Slowing on green: India is going full steam ahead with coal energy, giving short shrift to its renewables programme despite solar and wind energy costs becoming competitive, cheaper even. Companies such as JSW Group that were hesitant to invest are rushing to set up thermal power plants as well as buy coal mines abroad. 

Rising cost: India imported 237 million tonnes of coal worth $48 billion in FY23 compared to $21 billion for 248 million tonnes in FY20. Some of India’s biggest conglomerates such as Adani, JSW, Tata, GVK, and Essar own coal mines abroad, which are the main source of imports. A government committee, meanwhile, has sought a carbon tax on imported coal. 

FYI

Podium finish: Christopher Nolan-directed Oppenheimer swept the Academy Awards, bagging seven Oscar statuettes, including best movie, director, and actor. Emma Stone was adjudged the Best Actress for Poor Things.

Chip warchest: China is raising $27 billion in its National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, better known as the Big Fund, to blunt US moves to curb its semiconductor advances.

Inked: After 16 years of talks, India and Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein have signed a free trade pact that also includes a $100 billion investment commitment from the four-nation non-European Union bloc.

Taking off: The Adani Group will spend ₹60,000 crore (~$7.2 billion) over the next decade to expand its seven airports.  

Rush on the infoway: India now has 820 million internet users, 442 million of them in rural areas; 90% users are active daily, spending an average of 1.5- hours on the net, a new study shows. 

Bad med: Generic drug maker Sun Pharma is recalling ~55,000 bottles of a generic gout medicine Febuxostat from the US markets for flouting manufacturing norms, the US Food and Drug Administration said.

Replacement soon: A panel led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to appoint two new election commissioners by March 15 after incumbent Arun Goel resigned abruptly. 

THE DAILY DIGIT

$1 trillion

The investment opportunity companies are salivating over. The European Investment Bank estimates it to be the amount required to rebuild war-shattered Ukraine. (Bloomberg) 

FWIW

Not interested: That’s the message from American workers who are increasingly prioritising themselves and family, and looking for jobs that enable the same. Pew surveys from 2017 to the present point to this change as well: fewer Americans believe that work = identity. Of course, a tight labour market is giving the workforce an edge in negotiations, but even without that, there’s reason to believe some changes will be permanent. Americans across age groups are willing to make full use of their vacation days, remote work is non-negotiable, and so are reduced working hours. Feels like the good days are coming.

Ka-ching!: If watching finfluencers and looking for side hustles is a daily ritual for you, then you might like this idea. Buy any second-hand vending machine, load it up with soft drinks bought in bulk, and charge a decent markup. The idea’s all the rage these days, with scores of people posting videos of their experience online. But before you go break the bank on this idea, you should also know that turning a profit is easier said than done. The locations/prices have to be just right, the competition low, and of course, there’s no guarantee. Americans are giving it a shot anyway. Would you?

For heaven’s sake: Do you love Japanese rice wine or sake? If yes, you’re in good company, because Cate Blanchett loves the stuff. So much so that she has agreed to become the creative director for Toku Sake. The company makes the rice wine in Asahikawa, one of Japan’s coldest cities, and sells them for $200. Blanchett sees immense business potential in the west, with several upmarket restaurants like three Michelin-starred Fat Duck now offering an extensive list of premium sake for its diners. Much like her acting, she clearly knows what she’s doing.